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Stocks up and away - now China is 'back on track' Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 30 June 2019 08:53

The mood music from the G20 has just made a dramatic change.

Trump's tweets of the last weeks and months has been full of confrontation but all that switched 180 degrees this weekend.

It's mainly been how he will add more tariffs on Chinese inports into the USA and the stock market got a severe case of the jitters, despite Fed chair Powell moving to a dovish stance on interest rates.

The news this weekend has changed all that. Trump folds on Huawei and has agreed to re-start talks.

The market will love these headlines and, as the chart shows, started it's next bull wave on Friday. Wave traders have been ready, watching the wave count followed by an a-b-c. This market is not collapsing.

Monday is 1st July, it's going to be quite a week and month!

dax1stjuly19

 
You load 16 tons and whaddyget? Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 16 June 2019 08:47

You load 16 tons and whaddyget?

What Kondratieff is telling us..

Way back in the days of wind up gramophones, my first 78 was that great number by Merle Travis. Reading an article this morning it resonated as China is said to have added just under 16 tons of Goldto it's reserves.

Maybe it's just the Gold bugs dropping bullish articles around the internet in an attempt to pump up prices. Perhaps they are the same people who tell us the Fed keep dumping massive numbers of Gold sell contracts whenever the price rallies.

Read more...
 
Who will win this trade war? Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 09 June 2019 09:15

Who will win this trade war?

Will Trump give way, roll over and save the talks by winding back on the latest tariff hike, or will the Chinese compromise and agree to curb their expanding technology sector?

Trump has an ego that won't let go and the Chinese cannot lose face, hence the impasse. This is as high a stakes game as ever there was. The latest salvo from China describing the US position as "naked economic terrorism" sets the scene for further escalation.

Read more...
 
The Bi-polar zigzag Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 09 June 2019 09:09

It's all about China (again)

Plus, don't miss the discount ends Tuesday

The stock and currency markets have been locked in a bi-polar zig zag. It's the China trade talks, or lack of them, that powers the market. It zigs up when ever the mood music is good, then zags down again into depression as the two sides appear as intractable as ever. And that's what just happened this week as the doom intensified:

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Stock Market Manipulation Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 05 May 2019 08:36

Stock market manipulation

The second story is how the stock market is about to collapse. The story is getting a little stale now as each mini sell off leads to another rally. Is it because the US Fed has put on hold any more rate rises or is it because of the impending wonderful US-China trade deal, etc?

Back in 1982 stock market manipulation was made legal. Not all manipulation of course but just share buy backs by companies. US congress is now getting hot and bothered. They have only just realised that Trumps tax cuts, and offshore repatriation of overseas company profits, were spent buying back their own shares, not paid out as special dividends. And so they want to ban buybacks again.

Read more...
 
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From the blog

An excellent start to the New Year

To say that confusion and division reign is something of an understatement!

Dare I mention the 'B' word? Very definitely not in polite company. It has the potential to reveal the rawest of emotional responses. Trump? Again, avoid anything other than the consensus view that he is most unlike any POTUS we have known before. Privately, we can perhaps attempt to debate with ourselves, if we have open minds, but these seem to be in short supply.

The markets are reflecting the mood with pundits taking their positions. Strong Dollar or weak Dollar? Collapsing stock market or no need to panic? Interest rates too high in the US or must they rise in the EU?

Certainty

The only thing we can be sure about is that the political and economic landscape has entered what may be a long period of major change. The certainty is most likely, ongoing uncertainty. Open minds are needed now more than ever.

A great start to the New Year

Despite the stock market tumble in December, Gold and Silver took off and stock markets are recovering for a great January so far. The US Dollar has now dropped back from the brink of plunging China into crisis. So, perhaps, armageddon and the 'everything' collapse will have to wait a while.

Consistency

TMEST also had a good start to the year. The chart of one of our favourite currency pairs, the CADCHF gave us a quick 126 pips and there could be more to come. It's not just currencies of course, we have also taken profits from the Gold and WTi Crude oil trend reversals.

This is one of TMEST's most consistent reversal patterns. The horizontal red lines picking out the entry and exit. The previous down trend ended with a break out, pull back and higher low, or BOPBHL pattern.

TMEST is a part of 'The KISS system of trading for life' that I will be presenting at the RTCT online summit, in February and at the Forex Show on Friday 22nd. No charge, sign up here.

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