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Yellen - as clear as? Print
Written by Site admin   
Wednesday, 12 July 2017 17:54

muddled

Markets have been on a roller coaster ride this week with New Zealand earth quakes, the latest Trump's son revelations and then it was Janet's turn today as she attempted to clarify matters US economic to Congress. If you have nothing better to do right now (for the next three hours) you can watch the Youtube video here. This statement sums up her new (lack of) clarity about interest rates:

Fed Chair Janet Yellen surprised markets again, when after weeks of a hawkish setup, she suggested that the Fed is not only uncertain "about when - and how much - inflation will respond to tightening resource utilization”, but warning that the federal funds rate may "not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance."

Various commentators have described the entire three hours as balnd in the extreme, this one from Goldman Sachs suggests intetrest rate normalisation will take a long, long time and the flip flop between hawkish and dovish sends out the strong signal of how muddled the Fed's thinking is about what the economy is actually doing! 

"We read the paragraph about the neutral rate as slightly dovish for the longer-run outlook, particularly the comment“…the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance.”Chair Yellen confirmed that she still expects the neutral rate to rise somewhat over time but remain below levels that prevailed in previous.

And the most likely direction for the US dollar as the "fed funds rate rises..............to a neutral policy stance":

updown

 

From the blog

Quantitative Tightening

QT - is the next big hurdle for markets.

The ECB is telling us they are running out of bonds to buy and it is widely expected that Mario Draghi will have to taper those monthly purchases. Janet Yellen and the Fed are making the same noises. Deutsche Bank's analyst Alan Ruskin

Read more...

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