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Next Wednesday, up they go again... Print
Written by Site admin   
Thursday, 07 June 2018 20:01

The consensus is the Federal Reserve, at it's June FOMC meeting Wednesday 13th, will confirm the next US interest rate increase, from 1.75 to 2%:

fomcjune18

The consensus, 'dot' plot and forward guidance is as plain as day. But, today, the bond market just had a hissy fit...

30yrbondjune18

The standard 30 year US T Bond has been tumbling down this year. Interest rates do the opposite of course, moving on up as bonds slide. But just look at the chart. The chart bottomed on May 18th, rallied then tumbled again, until today, June 7th.

The 4 hour chart shows a major key revesal day, lower early in the day then higher than yesterday. Key reversals (or the candle version, Bullish Engulfing) are one of the strongest one day signals in the market.

What does this mean?

Maybe nothing more than traders liquidating their previous short position profits, just in case something unexpected comes out of the Fed minutes.

Or - the market just got the idea the Fed will change it's mind and delay the increase. The dollar will tank and stock markets will soar even higher. Stranger things have happened, just when everyone least expect it.

 

 

From the blog

The UK's Crown Jewel

The UK's Crown Jewel

The Jewel in the UK's crown is, and has been for the last four+ decades, the City of London. City bankers and banking can do no wrong, as we discovered in 2007/8. Banking and finance delivering the largest tax yield of any sector of British industry.

The City of London is a dominant centre in world and European finance. If Europe really wanted to cause a problem for the UK leaving the club of 27, quashing a deal on financial cross border services is where they could do most damage.

Last Thursday a rumour gathered momentum.

Leaks dripped out from the 'secret' meetings with Brussels. The City could continue to operate as before across the Eurozone. It was later denied, of course, but the rumour was enough to collapse the EURGBP, reversing two weeks of Euro gains in just four days.

Last Thursday was the time to reverse the a-b-c trade and ride the EURGBP down for another 150+ pips.

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