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Next Wednesday, up they go again... Print
Written by Site admin   
Thursday, 07 June 2018 20:01

The consensus is the Federal Reserve, at it's June FOMC meeting Wednesday 13th, will confirm the next US interest rate increase, from 1.75 to 2%:

fomcjune18

The consensus, 'dot' plot and forward guidance is as plain as day. But, today, the bond market just had a hissy fit...

30yrbondjune18

The standard 30 year US T Bond has been tumbling down this year. Interest rates do the opposite of course, moving on up as bonds slide. But just look at the chart. The chart bottomed on May 18th, rallied then tumbled again, until today, June 7th.

The 4 hour chart shows a major key revesal day, lower early in the day then higher than yesterday. Key reversals (or the candle version, Bullish Engulfing) are one of the strongest one day signals in the market.

What does this mean?

Maybe nothing more than traders liquidating their previous short position profits, just in case something unexpected comes out of the Fed minutes.

Or - the market just got the idea the Fed will change it's mind and delay the increase. The dollar will tank and stock markets will soar even higher. Stranger things have happened, just when everyone least expect it.

 

 

From the blog

Canada tightens...

 We just had Canada pop their overnight interest rate up from 0.5 to 0.75%, a 25 basis point rise as they say in the trade. It's taken them 7 years to do it and marks the end ultra cheap money that kicked off the crazy housing market with valuations way above the reach of the average Canadian.  Now they are confident the economy is sound and the oil price, on which the economy largely depends, has stabilised in recent months. So much for the announcement, you can read the story here, but it's the chart USDCAD that has been looking very interesting for some time.

Read more...

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