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An excellent start to the New Year Print
Written by Site admin   

To say that confusion and division reign is something of an understatement!

Dare I mention the 'B' word? Very definitely not in polite company. It has the potential to reveal the rawest of emotional responses. Trump? Again, avoid anything other than the consensus view that he is most unlike any POTUS we have known before. Privately, we can perhaps attempt to debate with ourselves, if we have open minds, but these seem to be in short supply.

The markets are reflecting the mood with pundits taking their positions. Strong Dollar or weak Dollar? Collapsing stock market or no need to panic? Interest rates too high in the US or must they rise in the EU?

Certainty

The only thing we can be sure about is that the political and economic landscape has entered what may be a long period of major change. The certainty is most likely, ongoing uncertainty. Open minds are needed now more than ever.

A great start to the New Year

Despite the stock market tumble in December, Gold and Silver took off and stock markets are recovering for a great January so far. The US Dollar has now dropped back from the brink of plunging China into crisis. So, perhaps, armageddon and the 'everything' collapse will have to wait a while.

Consistency

TMEST also had a good start to the year. The chart of one of our favourite currency pairs, the CADCHF gave us a quick 126 pips and there could be more to come. It's not just currencies of course, we have also taken profits from the Gold and WTi Crude oil trend reversals.

This is one of TMEST's most consistent reversal patterns. The horizontal red lines picking out the entry and exit. The previous down trend ended with a break out, pull back and higher low, or BOPBHL pattern.

TMEST is a part of 'The KISS system of trading for life' that I will be presenting at the RTCT online summit, in February and at the Forex Show on Friday 22nd. No charge, sign up here.

 

From the blog

How to be a professional trader

How to be a professional trader

The world we inhabit is dominated by the 80-20 principle.

Vilfredo Pareto changed the way we looked at many things, specifically micro-economics which he linked to social factors which went on to become popularised in recent years. Pareto observed the "law of the vital few". Approximately 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

Nowhere is this more apparent than a glance at the small print at the bottom of every spreading betting website. They are now required to publish how many clients lose - you guessed it, around 80% of their customers lose money.

So, what of the remaining 20% or so?

There are is no shortage of horror stories from the 80%. Many have been there. This article describes the spiral into despair which results from marketing hype and personal hubris, the Superman effect, following modest successes. 

Reality? A recent research report from Psyquation indicated that fewer than 20% become profitable after two years and only 1.2% are successful enough to make trading their career. Sobering stuff for those new to the game, but is it gambling? Thanks go to long term investor Gary Scott for the article below:

Trading and Investing is gambling.

Until we admit this, we cannot invest like the pros. However, once we recognize that every investment is a bet, can we become a professional investor instead of a stock and bond gambler?
The fact is professional gamblers are not really gamblers. They are investing pros who cash in on the imbalances of gamblers. They invest in bets instead of stocks and bonds.

Read more...

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