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Stocks up and away - now China is 'back on track' Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 30 June 2019 08:53

The mood music from the G20 has just made a dramatic change.

Trump's tweets of the last weeks and months has been full of confrontation but all that switched 180 degrees this weekend.

It's mainly been how he will add more tariffs on Chinese inports into the USA and the stock market got a severe case of the jitters, despite Fed chair Powell moving to a dovish stance on interest rates.

The news this weekend has changed all that. Trump folds on Huawei and has agreed to re-start talks.

The market will love these headlines and, as the chart shows, started it's next bull wave on Friday. Wave traders have been ready, watching the wave count followed by an a-b-c. This market is not collapsing.

Monday is 1st July, it's going to be quite a week and month!

dax1stjuly19

 
You load 16 tons and whaddyget? Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 16 June 2019 08:47

You load 16 tons and whaddyget?

What Kondratieff is telling us..

Way back in the days of wind up gramophones, my first 78 was that great number by Merle Travis. Reading an article this morning it resonated as China is said to have added just under 16 tons of Goldto it's reserves.

Maybe it's just the Gold bugs dropping bullish articles around the internet in an attempt to pump up prices. Perhaps they are the same people who tell us the Fed keep dumping massive numbers of Gold sell contracts whenever the price rallies.

Read more...
 
Who will win this trade war? Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 09 June 2019 09:15

Who will win this trade war?

Will Trump give way, roll over and save the talks by winding back on the latest tariff hike, or will the Chinese compromise and agree to curb their expanding technology sector?

Trump has an ego that won't let go and the Chinese cannot lose face, hence the impasse. This is as high a stakes game as ever there was. The latest salvo from China describing the US position as "naked economic terrorism" sets the scene for further escalation.

Read more...
 
The Bi-polar zigzag Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 09 June 2019 09:09

It's all about China (again)

Plus, don't miss the discount ends Tuesday

The stock and currency markets have been locked in a bi-polar zig zag. It's the China trade talks, or lack of them, that powers the market. It zigs up when ever the mood music is good, then zags down again into depression as the two sides appear as intractable as ever. And that's what just happened this week as the doom intensified:

Read more...
 
Stock Market Manipulation Print
Written by Site admin   
Sunday, 05 May 2019 08:36

Stock market manipulation

The second story is how the stock market is about to collapse. The story is getting a little stale now as each mini sell off leads to another rally. Is it because the US Fed has put on hold any more rate rises or is it because of the impending wonderful US-China trade deal, etc?

Back in 1982 stock market manipulation was made legal. Not all manipulation of course but just share buy backs by companies. US congress is now getting hot and bothered. They have only just realised that Trumps tax cuts, and offshore repatriation of overseas company profits, were spent buying back their own shares, not paid out as special dividends. And so they want to ban buybacks again.

Read more...
 
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From the blog

Australian Banks - Oh boy!

It's gradually dawning on the Reserve Bank of Australia that they have a problem.

The big four Aussie banks are holding around 85% percent of all Aussie home mortages.

As worldwide interest rates were creeping up throughout 2018, repayment costs have increased at the same time as housing prices are falling back. No great problem for those who bought property a decade and more ago.

The problem is for those who invested in the last few years. Very soon a good many mortgages will be in negative equity. If, or when, mortgage defaults increase, bank capitalisations will tumble and it could become a spiral, starting slowly and then accelerating across the real estate, mortgage and banking sectors with the predictable effect on the Australian dollar.

 For a full assesment of the bind Ausralian banks are in, click and listen to this video from Chris at Casey Resaearch and Martin North of Digital Finance Analytics.

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