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Stock Market Manipulation Print
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Sunday, 05 May 2019 08:36

Stock market manipulation

The second story is how the stock market is about to collapse. The story is getting a little stale now as each mini sell off leads to another rally. Is it because the US Fed has put on hold any more rate rises or is it because of the impending wonderful US-China trade deal, etc?

Back in 1982 stock market manipulation was made legal. Not all manipulation of course but just share buy backs by companies. US congress is now getting hot and bothered. They have only just realised that Trumps tax cuts, and offshore repatriation of overseas company profits, were spent buying back their own shares, not paid out as special dividends. And so they want to ban buybacks again.

Buybacks have reduced the float of shares available and now represent a substantial lump of the S&P's market capitalisation. Without buybacks and Sovereign nation buying such as the Swiss National Bank, would the market be as High as it is? Unlikely.

Who benefits from buybacks? Just the insiders from share options and only those who decide to sell their shares. You can read more here.

Goldman Sachs have pointed out that should buybacks be banned, the stock market will collapse. Since 2007/8 over $5trillion has helped fuel the market with $900 billion last year and much the same expected in 2019.

This could be the biggest risk to the Trump rally, but by looking at the S&P pushing towards it's 2016 high the market this week suggests there is no chance of congress reversing that 1982 directive.

 

From the blog

An excellent start to the New Year

To say that confusion and division reign is something of an understatement!

Dare I mention the 'B' word? Very definitely not in polite company. It has the potential to reveal the rawest of emotional responses. Trump? Again, avoid anything other than the consensus view that he is most unlike any POTUS we have known before. Privately, we can perhaps attempt to debate with ourselves, if we have open minds, but these seem to be in short supply.

The markets are reflecting the mood with pundits taking their positions. Strong Dollar or weak Dollar? Collapsing stock market or no need to panic? Interest rates too high in the US or must they rise in the EU?

Certainty

The only thing we can be sure about is that the political and economic landscape has entered what may be a long period of major change. The certainty is most likely, ongoing uncertainty. Open minds are needed now more than ever.

A great start to the New Year

Despite the stock market tumble in December, Gold and Silver took off and stock markets are recovering for a great January so far. The US Dollar has now dropped back from the brink of plunging China into crisis. So, perhaps, armageddon and the 'everything' collapse will have to wait a while.

Consistency

TMEST also had a good start to the year. The chart of one of our favourite currency pairs, the CADCHF gave us a quick 126 pips and there could be more to come. It's not just currencies of course, we have also taken profits from the Gold and WTi Crude oil trend reversals.

This is one of TMEST's most consistent reversal patterns. The horizontal red lines picking out the entry and exit. The previous down trend ended with a break out, pull back and higher low, or BOPBHL pattern.

TMEST is a part of 'The KISS system of trading for life' that I will be presenting at the RTCT online summit, in February and at the Forex Show on Friday 22nd. No charge, sign up here.

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